HDE Consumer Barometer January: Consumer sentiment slightly improved – reluctance to buy remains
After consumer sentiment ended December 2025 at its lowest level in a year, the new year 2026 begins with a slight improvement in sentiment.
This is shown by the latest consumer barometer from the German Retail Association (HDE). According to this, the index climbed slightly in January. Consumer sentiment is therefore better than it was a year ago. However, consumers remain reluctant to spend.
Following the Christmas shopping season, consumer spending remains subdued at the start of the year. Their propensity to buy is down compared with the previous month, while their propensity to save is up.
This indicates a shift from consumption to saving. In the coming weeks, consumers appear to want to build up a financial cushion, so no significant growth in private consumption is to be expected. Consumers are not likely to abandon their restraint until the economic conditions improve significantly.
It is therefore encouraging that consumers are somewhat more optimistic about the upcoming economic development. Their economic expectations are brighter than in the previous month and are even better than a year ago. Consumers are also positive about the further development of their own income situation. In financial terms, they are starting the new year on a positive note.
The year 2026 is associated with hopes of an economic upturn. This is also reflected in the development of consumer sentiment in Germany. Consumers are generally more optimistic than they were a year ago. However, there are still major uncertainties that could lead to continued consumer reluctance. The federal government is therefore called upon to implement its political plans and ensure sustainable growth. According to the HDE, this is a prerequisite for a recovery in private consumption.
The HDE Consumption Barometer, published on the first Monday of each month, is based on a monthly survey of 1,600 people on their propensity to buy, propensity to save, financial situation, and other factors relevant to consumption. The Consumer Barometer, which is compiled by the Handelsblatt Research Institute (HRI) on behalf of the HDE, serves as an indicator for private consumption. It does not reflect current consumer behavior, but rather the expected mood over the next three months.
