HDE Consumer Barometer January: Consumer sentiment slightly improved – reluctance to buy remains
After consumer sentiment ended the year at its lowest level in a year in December 2025, the new year 2026 begins with a slight improvement in sentiment.
This is shown by the latest consumer barometer from the German Retail Federation (HDE). According to the index, it climbed slightly in January, indicating that consumer sentiment is better than a year ago. However, consumer reluctance to spend persists.
Following the Christmas shopping season, consumer restraint prevails at the beginning of the year. Their propensity to buy decreases compared to the previous month, while their propensity to save increases.
This indicates a shift from consumption to saving. In the coming weeks, consumers appear intent on building up financial reserves, so no significant growth in private consumption is expected. Consumers are unlikely to abandon their restraint until the economic environment improves considerably.
There is therefore hope that consumers are somewhat more optimistic about the upcoming economic development. Their economic expectations have brightened compared to the previous month and are even better than a year ago. Consumers are also positive about the future development of their own income situation. Financially speaking, they are starting the new year on a positive note.
The year 2026 is associated with hopes for an economic upswing. This is also reflected in the development of consumer sentiment in Germany. Consumers are generally more optimistic than a year ago. However, significant uncertainties remain, which could lead to continued reluctance to spend. Therefore, the German government is called upon to implement its policy plans and ensure sustainable growth. This is a prerequisite for a recovery in private consumption, according to the German Retail Federation (HDE).
The HDE Consumer Barometer, which is published on the first Monday of each month, is based on a monthly survey of 1,600 people on their propensity to buy, propensity to save, financial situation and other consumption-related factors. The consumption barometer, which is compiled by the Handelsblatt Research Institute (HRI) on behalf of the HDE, serves as an indicator for private consumption. It does not reflect current consumer behaviour, but rather the expected mood over the next three months.
